YWO NEWS | MACRO | DEEP DIVE / ANALYSIS
US Treasury yields rose across the curve on Tuesday morning as traders raised their bets on Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, with the 10-year yield sitting at 4.622% by 6:02 a.m. ET, up more than 1 basis point on the session, CNBC’s Hugh Leask reported. The session is carrying two events that have drawn the market’s full attention: the June inflation print, due later Tuesday, and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s debut testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.
On Monday, Treasury yields rose after the 10-year yield jumped 4 basis points and the 2-year surged more than 6 basis points after President Donald Trump announced plans to blockade Iranian ports and impose fees of 20% on cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz, according to CNBC. Tuesday’s yield movements were more limited — Tuesday’s 2-year yield rose more than 1 basis point to 4.277%, and the 30-year added nearly 1 basis point to 5.105% — but the direction is unchanged.
Oil and the Fed Repricing
Oil prices rose following developments relating to the Strait of Hormuz, while Treasury yields also increased, according to CNBC. . West Texas Intermediate futures were last 3.2% higher at $80.66 a barrel, while Brent crude jumped 4.3% to $86.90, CNBC reported. Higher oil prices may influence inflation expectations, and market participants continue to monitor their potential impact on interest-rate expectations.
The CME FedWatch tool now shows traders pricing a 39% probability of a July 29 rate hike, up from 26.7% a week ago, according to CNBC. Expectations for two hikes by April next year have been gathering pace alongside the oil move.
| Asset | Level / Move | Source |
|---|---|---|
| US 10-year yield | 4.622% (+>1 bp, Tue) | CNBC |
| US 2-year yield | 4.277% (+>1 bp, Tue) | CNBC |
| US 30-year yield | 5.105% (+~1 bp, Tue) | CNBC |
| WTI crude | $80.66 (+3.2%) | CNBC |
| Brent crude | $86.90 (+4.3%) | CNBC |
| July 29 hike probability | 39% (vs. 26.7% one week ago) | CME FedWatch |
Warsh Steps into the Spotlight
Another focus for market participants is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony. . Tuesday marks his first appearance before Congress as Fed chair, with a House Financial Services Committee appearance scheduled for later in the day and a Senate Banking Committee session on Wednesday, CNBC reported.As this is Mr. Warsh’s first congressional testimony as Fed Chair, market participants may monitor his comments on monetary policy and economic conditions.
The testimony coincides with the release of the June CPI report. . If the June CPI print, also due Tuesday, comes in above the consensus forecast of 3.8% year-on-year — down from May’s 4.2% — Warsh will face a live, data-hot interrogation from the committee. Core CPI is expected to hold at 2.9% year-on-year, per consensus figures cited by CNBC. A surprise to the upside on either measure would arrive while Warsh is mid-testimony.
Market Focus
Market expectations may continue to evolve following the release of the June CPI report and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony. According to the consensus figures cited by CNBC, headline CPI is expected at 3.8% year-on-year, compared with 4.2% in May, while core CPI is expected to remain at 2.9%. Market participants will assess the published data alongside the Fed Chair’s comments for any indications regarding the economic outlook and monetary policy. Developments in energy markets and geopolitical events may also continue to influence inflation expectations over time.
What’s Scheduled Next
- June CPI (US) — Due Tuesday, 14 July 2026, later in the session. Consensus: headline 3.8% YoY; core 2.9% YoY. BLS
- Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh — House Financial Services Committee testimony — Tuesday, 14 July 2026. Federal Reserve Events Calendar
- Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh — Senate Banking Committee testimony — Wednesday, 15 July 2026. Federal Reserve Events Calendar
- Next FOMC meeting — 29 July 2026. FOMC Calendar
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